Author Topic: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?  (Read 562 times)

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Offline andy_peters

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Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« on: January 29, 2020, 04:57:55 PM »
We ran the QM open on a trial basis on the PY for cherubs - with 975 for 97 rules, 903 for 05 rules and 750 for the foiler.  We could also consider using the Great Lakes handicap.

I thought it kept racing more involving and closer.  On this PY we just beat Martyn.  On the Great Lakes H'cap he would have beaten us.

Shall we run opens this way in 2020 or keep it first past the post?

Thoughts?  I quite like the handicap basis as it kept QM quite tense for us and we were having to concentrate hard to try and beat Martyn.  Under first past the post it would have been much more cruisy.

I suggest we keep the Nationals first past the post for now but what do others think?

Offline JP233

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Re: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2020, 06:37:33 PM »
I am very keen for the handicaps to be run at open event (but not nationals as you say), although i do feel we should use the Great Lakes system over the RYA system.

Means i have the same margin for error during the sail juice stuff!
Thanks
Jamie

Offline scorpion_1925

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Re: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2020, 12:52:03 PM »
My thoughts are that as a development class we should run the nationals and the opens on first past the post, but run the handicap alongside for the opens so that those with older boats can see how they are doing in comparison to the latest boats. I would say that for the handicaps we should use the great lakes, partly because those should be updated as time goes on with some of us doing handicap events such as sailjuice.
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Offline JayW

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Re: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2020, 09:28:15 PM »
Just a thought about PY versus Great Lakes. Simplistically:
The basis of PY is the average speed round a variety of courses of the average performer based on the returns submitted. My understanding of the GL approach is that it started off from the then-current PYs but then penalised anything that won (or came close). So an outstanding performance by one crew at one event has a much bigger impact on the GL handicap for that class (or sub-class for Cherubs) than it would on PY for the same class.
Therefore the GL numbers are not very representative, particularly further down the fleets.
The RYA PYs for Cherubs suffer from very few inputs, so are not perfect either, but the approach is better.

I would suggest applying the PY approach based on every event for which times are taken.
Happy to help with the maths if required.

Jay
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 09:32:50 PM by JayW »

Offline deefender1098

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Re: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2020, 10:52:56 PM »
What Andy has proposed sounds fair so I'm happy to say line honours for nationals but great lakes for opens.

If we are using great lakes can we use correct numbers?

If I'm right the Queen Mary was run off the py for 05 boats 750 for the foiler and 970 97 rules
Great lakes has our handicaps listed as follows:
Foiling: 800
05 :890
97:  970
 Is there a reason we aren't using that?

Offline JimC

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Re: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2020, 02:06:22 PM »
Just to correct a couple of misconceptiions.

PY is not based on the average of all boats, but the average of all results that come above a threshold point. What this means in practice is that results where you finish at the back of the fleet after capsizing are unlikely to contribute to the calculation, nor are those for people still learning and at the back of the fleet. It also has the effect of tending to discount results from classes with binary performance on days when the weather doesn't suit them. Foil Moths in sub foiling conditions are an obvious example, and of course the Cherub is another. The end result is that PY represents about the top two thirds of most fleets when sailing in conditions that aren't too unsuitable for the class.

The Great Lakes and RYA handicaps are calculated in the same way. The differences are :
 - firstly that the Great Lakes handicaps are calculated on a much smaller data set, but for clubs much closer in water type
 - secondly that whereas the RYA won't publish a number for which there is insufficient data, the Great Lakes people will take as educated a guess as they can.

When the Great Lakes started out the RYA handicaps were still largely dominated by club estimates of handicaps, which they were supposed to use the threshold method to calculate, but it is believed that a good number of clubs didn't do the sums and just guessed or filled in "same as last year". This tended to make the RYA numbers rather slow to change. The Great Lakes, on the other hand, made calculations based only on race results.  In recent years though, with on line returns system, the RYA system is just as quick to respond to changes as the Great Lakes. Indeed I've got something of a suspicion that some published numbers are tending to follow the weather, so if we get three windy years in a row handicaps for wind loving classes will tend to reduce and vice versa.

Have you considered dual scoring? We used to dual score the Nationals for a handicap prize. The other system that might be worth considering is the RYAs NHC system, which is a sort of personal handicap system which progressively adjusts for each boat. It may be though that there aren't enough people doing enough events for it to be useful.

The difficult bit when faced with multiple versions of handicap numbers, of course, is deciding which ones give the right answer. I've never been very clear on how you can be sure one number is right and the other wrong.

Any concerns with handicaps that I can help with don't hesitate to send me a message, I may not spot things on the forum. Important things to do, as I've said before, is to get your clubs to distinguish between 97 rules, 05 rules and foil boats and get those returns in. If the results are in the RYA database and correctly categorised I may be able to give you some pointers even if there aren't enough results for a published number. You might also want to consider getting every result for the season into a single spreadsheet or sailwave file and doing some analysis on that. Sailwave has some capability.

enjoy the season!

Jim C

Offline scorpion_1925

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Re: Running our 2020 open meetings on a handicap basis?
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2020, 12:51:03 PM »
Hi Jim

last year we ran the events on first past the post basis, but we also asked the host clubs to give us the race times so we could see what effect it had on the results if we did them on handicap. unfortunately as we have the handicap data and not the host clubs it has not been possible to submit the information to the RYA because only clubs can send it in and not classes. I can email you the data if you would like to see it for reference.

The issue I see with personalised handicaps is that with the except of a couple of boats we end up with different crews in boats and that would cause inconsistent performances as skill sets are varied.

i have sailwave at home so i could have a play with it and see if i can get it to do some analysis on the results.
If in doubt flat out